Friday, March 20, 2009
'Coming Back' Politics
Friday, March 13, 2009
Sending signals across seas
Thursday, March 12, 2009
'India should pressurize SL'
The author is Research Scholar, School of International Studies, Jawaharlal Nehru University, New Delhi. The complete text of the article appeared in the Institute for Peace and Conflict Studies' website.
http://ipcs.org/article_details.php?articleNo=2826
'Federal structure with devolved powers is the solution'
This is another interview with Prof. V. Suryanarayan, former Director of Centre for South and Southeast Asian Studies in the University of Madras over the sensitive Sri Lankan issue and the Indian government's response to it. V. Suryanarayan is now the President of the Chennai Centre for China Studies. He is an expert specializing in the Indo - Sri Lankan relations for the last several years.
In the picture: Prof. V. Suryanarayan
Photo: Dennis S. Jesudasan
It is said that the fall of Killinochhi was a clear sign of the end of the ethnic crisis in the island. How do you read the incidents in the past five months? Is it possible for the government forces to completely wipe LTTE off the island?
The incidents only reveal the decline of the LTTE as a conventional military force. Unless the military presence is accompanied by political reforms the ethnic crisis will not come to an end. But the LTTE is very likely to switch over to a guerilla struggle. Some of them may go out of the Vanni jungle and seek shelter elsewhere and carry on with their mission.
In the case of the LTTE losing its commander (V. Prabakaran) off the battlefield, who in your opinion will take over to lead the organisation?
The LTTE is a highly centralized organization with all powers concentrated in the hands of its leader Prabakaran. So, it is difficult to say who will follow him. Also, he has not nominated anyone.
What kind of government set up would help
A federal structure with clear constitutional guarantee and devolution of powers alone can satisfy the political aspirations of the minority communities in the
What is the
President Rajapaksa says he will implement the thirteenth amendment as soon as possible. But, he has not implemented it in the
With a multi lingual, multi religious and multi cultural society (both Indian case and otherwise), is it possible for the South Asian countries to work under a unitary structure? Is federal structure for governance with regional autonomy inferior to the unitary structure in the face of the foreign threats?
Only federal structure with devolved powers could help in governing the South Asian countries. No, it is not inferior because the citizenship remains the same. Also, with a federal structure linguistic sentiments could be solved, especially in the Indian case.
To what extent will the Sri Lankan Tamils’ issue impact the relations between
President Rajapaksa has successfully purchased arms from
Given the support from Tamil Nadu for the besieged Tamils, how do you assess Indian government handling of this sensitive issue?
The central government has managed to take along the state government in the LTTE issue. Both of them are speaking the same language. There are some vocal supporters or pro LTTE parties that may not have more than ten per cent of votes. Its either DMK or AIADMK that rule the state. So, these smaller groups do not make much influence.
'Federalism is the solution in Sri Lanka
With the Sri Lankan Tamils issue disturbing the social and political fabric in Tamil Nadu for the last few months, every move made by the state and the central government are being closely watched. Having intervened in the Sri Lankan internal matters since the 80s, India has the moral responsibility to solve this sensitive issue, say critics. What is the Indian government response to this issue? What kind of political set up could bring peace in the troubled Island? Dennis S. Jesudasan interviews Dr. M. Mayilvaganan, Associate Fellow, Institute of Defence Studies and Analyses, who is a expert working on the Indo - Sri Lankan relations since 2006.
In the picture: Dr.M. Mayilvaganan, Faculty, IDSA, New Delhi
Photo: IDSA, New Delhi
The fall of Kilinochhi was a clear sign of the end of the ethnic crisis in the Island. How do you read the incidents in the past five months?
The incidents unfolding in Sri Lanka for last few months suggest that LTTE's conventional military capability is nearing its end. On the other hand, it also shows the determination of the Rajapaksa government in winning the Tigers militarily before moving to a political process. However, I do not see the fall of Kilinochchi or Mullaitivu as the end of the ethnic crisis. Through military means you can bring normalcy but can not bring permanent peace. Permanent peace can be achieved only through power sharing.
Is it possible for the government forces to wipe LTTE off the Island?
No. Territorially the government could do that. But the Tigers will always be there mingling with the population and could wage guerilla warfare.
From where do financial supports come to the Tigers?
From the Tamil Diaspora, especially from Canada, United Kingdom, Australia, and France.
In case LTTE loses its commander (V. Prabakaran), who will lead the organisation?
It could be. Pottu Amman or Charles Antony or Soosai in the order of priority.
What do you think are the strengths and the weakness of both the government forces and the LTTE?
The government’s strength lies in its superiority in air power, overwhelming support from the Sinhalese and political support from India. Its major weakness is the polarisation of communities in the Iisland. Regarding the LTTE, their strengths precipitate from the government’s mistakes. There is support from Tamils in Sri Lanka and the Diaspora. Lack of man power is its weakness.
What kind of government set up is a solution that "is acceptable to all communities"?
Federalism.
What is the Sri Lankan government's position on the XIII amendment of the Sri Lankan Constitution?
No clear policy. But the government could go for it with some provisions removed so as to please India.
To what extent will the Sri Lankan Tamils’ issue impact the relations between India and Sri Lanka?
The Sri Lankan Tamils issue will affect the domestic constituency and may be put a little strain in the bilateral relations.
With a lot of support from Tamil Nadu for the Tamils in Sri Lanka, how does the Indian government handle this sensitive issue?
There is no clear policy in this issue. The government handles the Sri Lankan issue based on the situation and demand.
What are the major shifts in the Indian response to the Sri Lankan issue between the period before and after Rajiv Gandhi's assassination?
After Rajiv Gandhi’s assassination, India wants to use a “play behind the scene” diplomacy. It is moving towards building state to state relations.
Most of the regional parties in Tamil Nadu and few of the national parties have made their stance clear on the Sri Lankan Tamils issue. If the political equation in the country change (say the DMK's pulling out of UPA), will the Indian response to the Sri Lankan Tamils issue change too?
There could be a chance of the government making a slight change its policy.
With a multi lingual, multi religious and multi cultural society (both Indian case and otherwise), is it possible for the South Asian countries to work under a unitary structure? Is federal structure for governance with regional autonomy inferior to the unitary structure in the face of the foreign threats?
No, federal structure is not inferior to any other forms. The federal structure suits well for multi cultural and divided societies. It will help in solving many issues in the region.
Feature - This summer is too hot to forecast in TN
Too sunny to see!
Summer will be too hot in Tamil Nadu for another reason this year – Elections. With the Sri Lankan Tamils issue disturbing the political and social fabric of Tamil Nadu for the last few months, and with the alignment of various political parties under different banners in this issue, the electoral alliance of these parties for the coming parliamentary elections is the most anticipated one.
Having won all the 39 seats in the 14th parliamentary elections in May 2004, the Congress led United Progressive Alliance swept the state recording cent per cent result. Winning all the seats of a state is something any alliance would dream of. The state topped the Council of Ministers list with twelve seats – with the DMK, Congress and the PMK getting seven, four and one ministers respectively. But the state Assembly elections in 2006 did not reflect a similar pattern. The Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam led alliance won 163 seats and formed the government, while the AIADMK alliance won 69 seats.
With a lot of changes having taken place in the political alliances that had won the general elections in 2004, the state is facing the general elections in three months.
This time around the issues in and around
Despite a lot of opposition from few political quarters and some environment forums, the central government managed to start work for the Sethu Samudram Ship Channal Project. But with the continuous intervention of legal challenges against the government action, it is under litigation in the Supreme Court of India. The Congress in the centre and the DMK in the state consider it one of their major achievements. "It was the DMK that put the project into action from papers", said T. K. S. Ilangovan, spokesperson of the DMK.
But the recent incidents in the state have overshadowed the Sethu Samudram Project and all the speculations made on the forthcoming elections are to a larger extent made on the backdrop of the Sri Lankan Tamils issue. The unfortunate incidents of self immolation by some activists of some parties are considered factors that will influence the coming elections. On the other hand, for famous political analyst like V. Krishna Ananth, these are incidents that would not make much influence in the election results.
Unlike most other states, Tamil Nadu is important for the Congress for the fact that some of the ministers like P. Chidambaram and Mani Shankar Aiyar who have run through the term without major controversies are from the state and thus the party would want them to win 'at any cost'. Given the nature of elections, the local issues in the constituency matter a lot over his earned name in the party and the government in electing the candidate to the House. P. Chidambaram’s expertise and in international market and knowledge over recession and Mani Shankar Aiyar’s initiatives for tribal welfare in the North East will matter least to the aam admi in the constituency.
If P. Chidambaram, Mani Shankar Aiyar, T. R. Baalu and R. Velu are known in their constituencies, it will be for the construction of the medical college in Sivaganga, for the successful NREGS in Nagapattinam, the over bridges in Chennai and for the extended sub urban train service till Arrakonam respectively. Little will matter is their reputation in the Council of Ministers.
But, even done that, the candidate could not expect the ground easy for him. There are issues that are centuries old existing even before the candidate’s entry into politics and will stay put long after he is gone. Yes, Caste does play a major role in the election results. These caste equations in the state have made people win and lose, helped leaders rise and fall in this country. Tamil Nadu is no exception. Active politicians may deny it. So does G. Nanmaran of the MDMK saying, "If everything works along caste lines, no single party can emerge a winner”.
Keeping out the major issues of the state, delimitation too a larger extent have impacted the parties in their strategy of wooing every district's prominent caste. For instance, the prominent and dominant caste in Sivaganga district is the Chettiars, and the Member elected to the Parliament from the constituency comes from the same caste. But, the delimitation of constituencies in December 2007 has included parts of other districts to the constituency that has affected the community composition of the constituency.
"No caste is represented by single party, but parties can be represented by caste. Its all fluid" says M.S.S. Pandian, academician and political critic.
The ruling DMK wants to maintain the alliance with the Congress this time too. "The Congress DMK alliance is known for its performance and it will reflect it in the coming elections", said T. K. S. Ilangovan, spokesperson of the DMK. The DMK's defiance against the LTTE in February 2009 was a major change in its policy against the banned organization in the
Relations with its ally PMK, does not seem well for the DMK. The PMK's exit from the alliance in July 2008 did not affect the national UPA until the break out of the Sri Lankan Tamils issue. Even now, the PMK is officially with the UPA, but their relation with the DMK does not seem good especially in the wake of the Sri Lankan issue.
With the Sri Lankan Tamils issue gaining impetus the PMK started working with many pro LTTE parties that have started a movement persuading the state and the centre to stop the war in
But after the meeting with Congress Legislature Party leader D. Sudarsanam on Februrary, Ramadoss seem to have backtracked from his earlier position in the Sri Lankan Tamils issue. Also the PMK is losing its supporters to other parties feel critics. "The PMK is not as strong as it used to be earlier. It is losing its supporters (Vanniars) to other parties" says V. Krishna Ananth, a political analyst. (DMK ministers Durai Murugan and Veerapandi S. Arumugam, for instance are Vanniars)
The AIADMK alliance has MDMK for this parliamentary election. Vaiko leading the Sri Lankan Tamils Protection Movement is seen by his critics as politicizing the Sri Lankan Tamils issue. But Vaiko denied it sharply saying that he would not mind losing his political career for the cause of the Sri Lankan Tamils. "We do not have elections in mind. The MDMK has been active in this issue for the past ten years. It is for the people to decide for themselves", said G. Nanmaran, spokesperson of the MDMK in an interview.
After their pull out from the UPA, the Left parties have joined the AIADMK in Tamil Nadu in December 2008. The Left parties took to AIADMK since the party does not have any association with the BJP. So, for the parliamentary elections in May the BJP will be left alone.
Thol. Thirumavalavan of the Vidthalai Chiruthaigal Katchi is active in the Sri Lankan issue, but his party could possibly help only one candidate from Chidambaram constituency, since a majority of the party's cadres are concentrated in this place, and hence major parties having alliances with VCK will not make a big difference.
Also, Thirumavalavan's relations with the state Congress leaders in the last five months, his political activism as a pro LTTE party and especially the Sathyamurthi Bhawan incident may not help him form an alliance with the Congress. The DMK leadership would not lose the Congress, for one man whose party has just two MLAs in the Assembly. Defying all chances of change of alliance because of Thirumavalavan, a spokesperson of the Congress, Hamid said "We strongly believe Congress will win along with its alliance with DMK. We are hopeful of winning all 40 seats (39 in Tamil Nadu and one in Puducherry)".
Tamil Nadu elections have always been notoriously difficult to predict. Given the extremely fluid situation with ergard to alliances – pre and post elections, as well as the still uncertain and highly emotive Sri Lankan issue, forecasts are like words on water. Results of the past elections and opinions from analysts could only make an assumption of the situation and the process ends after a while with a question mark. Of course, three months is a long period in politics. Anything could happen. After all, it was because of a party from this state a Union government fell after thirteen days. But, watch out – it is cooking hot!
Interview with VCK leader
'Indian politics has entered a new phase'
With the parliamentary elections just two months away, political parties in Tamil Nadu have almost finalised their alliances. The ruling DMK will continue the alliance with the Congress, while the MDMK and the Left parties will sidewith the AIADMK. The only minor party that is officially with the Congress alliance is Viduthalai Chiruthaigal Katchi which may not continue, with the Congress leader K.V. Thangkabalu expressing his reluctance to accommodate VCK.
If the Congress alliance pushes the VCK out of the alliance, will the latter have an alliance with AIADMK? And what are the major issues that will determine the elections results this time? Dennis S. Jesudasan interviews
D. Ravikumar, the sole Member of Legislative Assembly from the party who quit his job to join politics, aspiring to work for the welfare of the Dalit community in Tamil Nadu.
In the picture: D. Ravikumar, MLA, Viduthalai Chiruthaigal Katchi
Photo: S V Krishnamachari
Where does your party stand today?
As of now, the situation is fluid. We are officially with the DMK and we want to continue with the alliance. Also, Congress needs the alliance to form the government in the centre. They need support not just from here, but from every state.
The DMK and the Congress are meeting today to discuss the seat sharing details. We have a meeting today too. Let us wait and see what emerges from these meetings.
In any case, how many seats do you intend to contest?
We have expressed a desire to contest from three constituencies - two reserved and one general. The general is likely to be from Kallakurichi.
Bahujan Samaj Party is another party that has a similar vote bank as yours. They are contesting in all the constituencies in Tamil Nadu. Will that affect your performance in the coming elections?
Bahujan Samaj Party has no visible presence in Tamil Nadu. Even if it contests here it will not make any impact in the state.
But one of your party members, who was an MLA, chose to switch to the BSP...
People may switch parties. In every party, people come and go. As far as we are concerned, the party is around the personality of Thol. Thirumavalavan.
How do you see the Third Front emerging?
There are bright chances for the Third Front to make it big. As things stand now, neither the Congress nor the BJP will manage to retain the seats which they won in the last elections. The Congress has lost the Left parties, while the Biju Janata Dal has quit the alliance with the BJP.
You say that the national parties are losing popularity. So, is Indian politics leading to?
Indian politics has reached a saturation point where the course of coalition politics has to take a new turn and that turn will be the future of the country. I will not be wrong in saying that Indian politics has entered a new phase.
So the Third Front will be a success this time?
We don’t know anything for sure. I can only say the Congress and the BJP will not retain their seats in Parliament.
What are the major issues that will decide the election results in Tamil Nadu?
In all the elections since Independence, only emotional issues have made impacts in the election results but not the core issues. In the case of Tamil Nadu, the DMK has used it to its advantage. Going by that logic, the sensitive Sri Lankan issue will be the deciding factor in the coming elections. So, Congress will be the biggest victim of this issue.
But the DMK runs a parallel movement like your Eelam Tamils Protection Movement?
People will question the moral responsibility of the DMK. The DMK as a party acted very well against the issue by organizing human chains and demonstrations. But as a party in the government they had the chance to act in a manner that could have changed things in the troubled Island. People are aware of it and will question it at the appropriate time.
Why is the Sri Lankan issue very important to you?
Our principles are based on Tamil nationalism and secularism. We cannot compromise our principles at any cost. Many parties in the state are politicizing the Sri Lankan issue for their election benefits. We do not want to do that because we cannot compromise on our principles.
Pudhiya Thamizhagam is a counterpart of your party in the South. How do you see it as a potential competitor for your growth in the South?
Pudhiya Thamizhagam cannot be compared to our party. We won two seats in the Assembly elections in 2006. Yes, both our parties were in the same forum (National Dalit Front) under the leadership of Ramvilas Paswan in Lok Tan Shakti. We both want to uplift the lives of the Dalits. But, since 1999, one can see Puthiya Thamizhagam losing popularity, while Viduthalai Chiruthaigal Katchi gained support.
Can you see your party joining the AIADMK alliance?
Jayalalithaa seems to see Modi as a role model and this very much affects our attitude towards AIADMK. We do not want another Gujarat in Tamil Nadu. We are very much concerned about the future of Tamil Nadu and we want it secure.
They have informed their willingness to offer three seats to us. We have not decided on this yet.
Will Vijayakant make an influence in the elections this time?
Vijayakant and his party will not make any impact in the elections. Since the time the Sri Lankan issue emerged in the political scene, Vijayakant has been invisible. With this taking the centrestage for the coming elections, Vijayakant will be irrelevant in Tamil Nadu politics.
Tuesday, March 10, 2009
Profile - Vaiko
Vaiko: the One Man ArmyWith all the known names of MDMK quitting the party, Vaiko is determined to meet the parliamentary elections facing bigger challenges.
Vaiko is not an obscure figure in Tamil politics. Since his entry into the scene in the 70s, Vaiko is known for his pro-LTTE statements and his unconditional support of the Sri Lankan Tamils. He is one of the few leaders in Tamil politics, who has all along stood in support of the Sri Lankan Tamils’ cause.
Born in an agriculturist family in the remote village of Kalingappatti in Southern Tamil Nadu, Vaiko developed a passion for politics during his student days in Palayamkottai and Chennai. Vaiko is a lawyer and also a post-graduate in Economics.
Vaiko was named Vai. Gopalsamy by his parents, but he preferred to be called “Vai. Go” (வை. கோ) by the political fraternity. An ardent supporter of the Dravidian Movement, he was inspired by Anna and joined Tamil politics. He was with the Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam until his exit in 1993. Vaiko accused DMK Chief M. Karunanidhi of supporting his son Stalin and playing dynasty politics.
During his days in the DMK, he was made a Member of Rajya Sabha in the party seat for three terms between 1978 and 1996. During his tenure as a Member of Rajya Sabha, Vaiko was nominated Member in Railway Convention Committee, Committee on the Welfare of Scheduled Castes and Scheduled Tribes, Committee on Petitions and Committee on Papers Laid on the Table.
After his exit from the DMK, Vaiko floated Marumalarchi Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam in 1993. He was elected to the 13 th Lok Sabha in 1999 on a MDMK seat.
During his tenure in the Lok Sabha, Vaiko was nominated a member in Committee on External Affairs and its Sub-Committee-I, Consultative Committee, Ministry of Industry, Committee of Privileges, Committee on Defence, Committee on Science and Technology, Environment and Forests and Committee on Ethics.
Vaiko was known for his oratorical skills in Parliament. He is called ‘Puratchi Puyal’ (புரட்சி புயல்)meaning a revolutionary hurricane by his party men.
Vaiko was arrested for his pro-LTTE statements during the Jayalalithaa regime in 2002. After having spent 19 months in prison, Vaiko was released when the AIADMK-led government decided to drop the charges against him.
Vaiko’s MDMK forged alliance with the Congress led United Progressive Alliance and contested four seats in the parliamentary elections in 2004 and won them all. But, Vaiko decided to change his state political equation and joined the AIADMK in 2006, prior to the Assembly elections. His party contested in as many as 35 seats, but managed to win only in six assembly constituencies.
Vaiko not only lost in the elections, but also lost two of his lieutenants L. Ganesan and Gingee Ramachandran, who parted ways.
Vaiko met United States President Barack Obama, prior to his election and discussed the draft of the former’s book, “Yes, We Can”. Vaiko promoted the Sri Lankan Tamils cause in Toronto and London and generated enough space for his political activism.
With the parliamentary elections announced in May 2009 in Tamil Nadu, Vaiko has fielded the Sri Lankan cause as major issue, since the neighbour Island is witnessing the killing the Tamil civilians in the attempt to sweep off the rebels. Asan attempt to mobolize the masses for the cause of the Sri Lankan Tamils and an indirect preparation for the approaching parliamentary elections, Vaiko has joined hands with Tamil separatist Nedumaran, CPI State Secretary D. Pandian, Pattali Makkal Katchi leader S. Ramadoss and Viduthalai Chief Katchi Chief Thol. Thirumavalavan and formed the Eelam Tamils Protection Movement.
Notwithstanding his efforts to strengthen the AIADMK alliance, Vaiko’s friend and MDMK presidium chairman M. Kannappan quit the party and is expected to join the Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam on 17 March. Kannappan is the last known leader in the MDMK camp other than the party’s General Secretary.
Vaiko’s open support of the Sri Lankan Tamils has earned him a big name among the Tamil Diaspora and also could bring in some thousands votes to the AIADMK alliance in the coming elections. But what lies ahead of Vaiko are the bigger challenges of keeping big names from quitting his party apart from making the Sri Lankan issue work for him in the parliamentary elections in May 2009.
Monday, March 9, 2009
Coalition - the God of Small Things!
The coalition government in Tamil Nadu is an essential phase in the history of the state as well as the national politics, as it marks the beginning of end of single regional party majority in the state, which was in place for more than forty years, since 1967. Also, it is equally important to the Congress because, it was the Congress that ruled the state before the 1967 elections.
Tamil Nadu was a challenge to the national parties, since the state was taken over by the regional from the 1960s. The Congress and the Bharatiya Janata Party being the two large parties in the country which managed to rule the country during various point of time since independence. But this southern state has always been their challenge, especially after the 1967 elections. The anti – Hindi sentiment of the 60’s Tamil Nadu overthrew the Congress rule in the state, despite famous Congress Chief Ministers like K. Kamaraj, C. Rajaji among others.
The political scenario of the state made a shift in 1967 with a sweeping win by the Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam, with a historic turn over of voters, 76% the highest in the history of Tamil Nadu elections. From then on, it’s the regional parties rule all the way to this day. Of course, the national parties managed to win alliances with these parties mainly for the Parliamentary elections, for the state political equation was different from the national politics, required a Dravidian spirit to a party.
The Indian political system’s famous trend of coalition politics to form government and rule the people has become indispensable in the face of representation of a pluralist society. The multiplicity of tiny political parties in the country and the solid vote banks they carry is not an issue which can be weighed flippantly. With the major influencing factors in the electoral Indian scene being caste, language, and other social sub divisions, it is inevitable to ignore these parties in the longer run for they have earned a sizeable vote banks in the state. With every other election, the less represented community chooses to float a party for the coming elections. Indian society being quite diverse on various lines at various points of incision, the largest democracy provides more parties to the already dense political fabric. Tamil Nadu not being an exception follows suit.
Coalition as a process in an elected democracy though, is not new to the Indian political system. The first coalition government was formed as early as 1952 in the first general elections in India. In the then Madras state, the Congress it had to join hands with the minor parties in the state since it failed to win majority. After a long spell of monopoly by the regional parties for over forty years, the second phase of coalition politics in the state started when the present government won the 2006 elections with its alliance with the Congress, Left parties and the Pattali Makkal Katchi. With all the allies including the Congress which won a extraordinary 34 seats, agreeing to support the exclusively Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam government from outside, M. Karunanidhi took over Tamil Nadu on 13 May 2006, opening a renewed chapter in the Tamil Nadu political history.
The result of the last Assembly elections in Tamil Nadu exhibit a healthy pattern in the political equation, when compared to West Bengal and Assam that underwent the elections along with Tamil Nadu in 2006. The complete sweep by the Left in West Bengal did not allow a strong opposition in the left dominated state and the hung assembly in Assam did not allow either of the opponents to form government without realignment of the political equation. In Tamil Nadu, the All India Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam got 61 seats with its ally Marumalarchi Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam got 6 seats, a strong enough combination to oppose the ruling Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam government, which of course is enjoying outside support from the Congress, the Pattali Makkal Katchi (later walked out of the alliance in 2008) and the Left parties.
Forming the government in the Legislative Assembly does not have the same political equation than the national scene. The state assembly elections bring out the various tiny political parties in the state to the surface which actually represent the many political identities in the state. In the 2006 Assembly elections alone, 1364 candidates from 36 major and minor parties and 1222 independent candidates contested for 234 seats, giving the voters a wide range of choice.
The rise in number of parties in the state also shows the increasing political consciousness in the state reflecting the citizens’ trust in democracy and the higher literacy rate. With the winning chances in the constituencies lie mostly over the local issues and the issues concerning the state and the political activism of the candidate after his win, the real parliamentary issues or the international issues largely do not affect the local politics. For instance, the most famous Chief Minister of Tamil Nadu K. Kamaraj was defeated in his own constituency (Virudhunagar) by a candidate who was a leader in the student wing of a regional party in 1967.
On the other hand, the emergence of caste based parties like Pattali Makkal Katchi and Dalit Panthers of India also prove that the legendary Dravidian Movement in the state was not a complete success. The prominent social movement which influenced the political geography of Tamil Nadu was aimed against the caste differentiation in the society. But as the results stand today, it is evident that the movement has failed to erase identity based on caste in the political arena. The Pattali Makkal Katchi and the Dalit Panthers of India are said to be the parties with the Vanniars and Dalits forming their vote banks respectively. This is evident as these parties have won from constituencies in Northern Tamil Nadu especially where the Vanniars and Dalits forming the concentration in this part of the state.
The legendary Dravidian movement which is influencing the Tamil Nadu politics to this day has not succeeded in bringing about a society which does not allow caste into politics. In the last forty years of Dravidian parties’ ruling the state, the two major Dravidian parties could not avoid the emergence of other caste based parties. These parties have failed to accommodate the interests of all the social strata in the Tamil society, giving way for not just new parties surfacing in the political platform, but also did permit some of their leaders break away from them to form parties. Though, the movement has benefited the social scene of the state to a larger extent, it does not reflect in the state’s political arena, especially with identity of caste as base for forming a party becoming common.
The regional parties in Tamil Nadu, which are the brainchildren of the Dravidian movement, have a common ideology. They are all against the Hindutva ideology of the right winged political elements in and other states in the country. But as we observe across decades, the political ideologies of the different parties in the state have not always been the primary priority during the elections. The political parties’ alignment during the elections had not necessarily depended on their ideology, but on their interests in a certain political situation. For instance, one of the oldest parties of the Dravidian ideology, the Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam joined hands with the Bharatiya Janata Party, the advocate of Hindutva, for the Lok Sabha elections in 1996.
With the record of various alliances the regional parties had with each other in the state, and the national parties changing their sides constantly, the political equation of the state is not stable, and evidently there are no permanent friends or foes in the Tamil Nadu politics. As the Tamil Nadu political system enters the coalition era, every ideological genre has to be included in the mainstream political process. The chances of winning a majority in the recent times also depend on the number of big and small parties that form the alliance. With the small parties in Tamil Nadu like the Pattali Makkal Katchi, Left parties and Marumalarchi Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam earning certain number of constituencies to them, the major parties can not afford to ignore them. In the new era of coalition in Tamil Nadu, united the parties win majority, divided they contest again!