Too sunny to see!
Summer will be too hot in Tamil Nadu for another reason this year – Elections. With the Sri Lankan Tamils issue disturbing the political and social fabric of Tamil Nadu for the last few months, and with the alignment of various political parties under different banners in this issue, the electoral alliance of these parties for the coming parliamentary elections is the most anticipated one.
Having won all the 39 seats in the 14th parliamentary elections in May 2004, the Congress led United Progressive Alliance swept the state recording cent per cent result. Winning all the seats of a state is something any alliance would dream of. The state topped the Council of Ministers list with twelve seats – with the DMK, Congress and the PMK getting seven, four and one ministers respectively. But the state Assembly elections in 2006 did not reflect a similar pattern. The Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam led alliance won 163 seats and formed the government, while the AIADMK alliance won 69 seats.
With a lot of changes having taken place in the political alliances that had won the general elections in 2004, the state is facing the general elections in three months.
This time around the issues in and around
Despite a lot of opposition from few political quarters and some environment forums, the central government managed to start work for the Sethu Samudram Ship Channal Project. But with the continuous intervention of legal challenges against the government action, it is under litigation in the Supreme Court of India. The Congress in the centre and the DMK in the state consider it one of their major achievements. "It was the DMK that put the project into action from papers", said T. K. S. Ilangovan, spokesperson of the DMK.
But the recent incidents in the state have overshadowed the Sethu Samudram Project and all the speculations made on the forthcoming elections are to a larger extent made on the backdrop of the Sri Lankan Tamils issue. The unfortunate incidents of self immolation by some activists of some parties are considered factors that will influence the coming elections. On the other hand, for famous political analyst like V. Krishna Ananth, these are incidents that would not make much influence in the election results.
Unlike most other states, Tamil Nadu is important for the Congress for the fact that some of the ministers like P. Chidambaram and Mani Shankar Aiyar who have run through the term without major controversies are from the state and thus the party would want them to win 'at any cost'. Given the nature of elections, the local issues in the constituency matter a lot over his earned name in the party and the government in electing the candidate to the House. P. Chidambaram’s expertise and in international market and knowledge over recession and Mani Shankar Aiyar’s initiatives for tribal welfare in the North East will matter least to the aam admi in the constituency.
If P. Chidambaram, Mani Shankar Aiyar, T. R. Baalu and R. Velu are known in their constituencies, it will be for the construction of the medical college in Sivaganga, for the successful NREGS in Nagapattinam, the over bridges in Chennai and for the extended sub urban train service till Arrakonam respectively. Little will matter is their reputation in the Council of Ministers.
But, even done that, the candidate could not expect the ground easy for him. There are issues that are centuries old existing even before the candidate’s entry into politics and will stay put long after he is gone. Yes, Caste does play a major role in the election results. These caste equations in the state have made people win and lose, helped leaders rise and fall in this country. Tamil Nadu is no exception. Active politicians may deny it. So does G. Nanmaran of the MDMK saying, "If everything works along caste lines, no single party can emerge a winner”.
Keeping out the major issues of the state, delimitation too a larger extent have impacted the parties in their strategy of wooing every district's prominent caste. For instance, the prominent and dominant caste in Sivaganga district is the Chettiars, and the Member elected to the Parliament from the constituency comes from the same caste. But, the delimitation of constituencies in December 2007 has included parts of other districts to the constituency that has affected the community composition of the constituency.
"No caste is represented by single party, but parties can be represented by caste. Its all fluid" says M.S.S. Pandian, academician and political critic.
The ruling DMK wants to maintain the alliance with the Congress this time too. "The Congress DMK alliance is known for its performance and it will reflect it in the coming elections", said T. K. S. Ilangovan, spokesperson of the DMK. The DMK's defiance against the LTTE in February 2009 was a major change in its policy against the banned organization in the
Relations with its ally PMK, does not seem well for the DMK. The PMK's exit from the alliance in July 2008 did not affect the national UPA until the break out of the Sri Lankan Tamils issue. Even now, the PMK is officially with the UPA, but their relation with the DMK does not seem good especially in the wake of the Sri Lankan issue.
With the Sri Lankan Tamils issue gaining impetus the PMK started working with many pro LTTE parties that have started a movement persuading the state and the centre to stop the war in
But after the meeting with Congress Legislature Party leader D. Sudarsanam on Februrary, Ramadoss seem to have backtracked from his earlier position in the Sri Lankan Tamils issue. Also the PMK is losing its supporters to other parties feel critics. "The PMK is not as strong as it used to be earlier. It is losing its supporters (Vanniars) to other parties" says V. Krishna Ananth, a political analyst. (DMK ministers Durai Murugan and Veerapandi S. Arumugam, for instance are Vanniars)
The AIADMK alliance has MDMK for this parliamentary election. Vaiko leading the Sri Lankan Tamils Protection Movement is seen by his critics as politicizing the Sri Lankan Tamils issue. But Vaiko denied it sharply saying that he would not mind losing his political career for the cause of the Sri Lankan Tamils. "We do not have elections in mind. The MDMK has been active in this issue for the past ten years. It is for the people to decide for themselves", said G. Nanmaran, spokesperson of the MDMK in an interview.
After their pull out from the UPA, the Left parties have joined the AIADMK in Tamil Nadu in December 2008. The Left parties took to AIADMK since the party does not have any association with the BJP. So, for the parliamentary elections in May the BJP will be left alone.
Thol. Thirumavalavan of the Vidthalai Chiruthaigal Katchi is active in the Sri Lankan issue, but his party could possibly help only one candidate from Chidambaram constituency, since a majority of the party's cadres are concentrated in this place, and hence major parties having alliances with VCK will not make a big difference.
Also, Thirumavalavan's relations with the state Congress leaders in the last five months, his political activism as a pro LTTE party and especially the Sathyamurthi Bhawan incident may not help him form an alliance with the Congress. The DMK leadership would not lose the Congress, for one man whose party has just two MLAs in the Assembly. Defying all chances of change of alliance because of Thirumavalavan, a spokesperson of the Congress, Hamid said "We strongly believe Congress will win along with its alliance with DMK. We are hopeful of winning all 40 seats (39 in Tamil Nadu and one in Puducherry)".
Tamil Nadu elections have always been notoriously difficult to predict. Given the extremely fluid situation with ergard to alliances – pre and post elections, as well as the still uncertain and highly emotive Sri Lankan issue, forecasts are like words on water. Results of the past elections and opinions from analysts could only make an assumption of the situation and the process ends after a while with a question mark. Of course, three months is a long period in politics. Anything could happen. After all, it was because of a party from this state a Union government fell after thirteen days. But, watch out – it is cooking hot!
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